By Eric Eisenberg
AsiaInt South Asia Review
8/13/08
Despite double digit inflation, losses by state-run enterprises, and various natural disasters, a senior official reported on 23 July that Bangladesh's gross domestic product miraculously rose 16% in the fiscal year that ended on 30 June.
Compared with the 2006/07 fiscal year, the country’s GDP rose from US$68bn to US$79bn in 2007/08. Per capita income also rose in the same period from US$520 to US$599, a 15% increase. The growth came after a year in which state enterprises incurred 53bn taka (US$774m) in total losses (a 131% rise from the previous fiscal year), the prices of imports rose significantly, the consumer price index consistently hovered around 10%, and the value of the nation’s currency depreciated.
Mohammad Rafiqual Islam, the government’s deputy economic advisor, said that the growth stemmed from increased export earnings; record remittances of $7.94bn from more than 464,000 Bangladeshis who have found work abroad; growth in capital markets; increased production of boro rice; and stabilization in both the manufacturing and service sectors.
Also providing stability has been the Durniti Domon Commission, also known as the Anti-Corruption Commission, which was established in January 2007 following Fakhruddin Ahmed’s appointment as the country’s chief adviser and his decision to suspend democracy for two years. On 15 July the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) issued a report praising the agency’s work over the past 18 months, referring to the achievements as "monumental".
"Very few commissions in other countries have made as much progress in such a short time frame," said Michael Th. Johnson, an anti-crime expert for the UN. The report was issued after a full investigation by the UNDP, which included the analysis of case studies, field visits, statistical surveys, as well as interviews with officials and experts within the commission.
Since its inception, according to the report, the ACC has incarcerated over 170 political and business figures for alleged corruption, including two former prime ministers. Corruption has recently been unearthed in the Bangladesh Telecommunications Company and two construction projects overseen by the Roads and Highways department, while the nephew of detained former prime minister Khaleda Zia has also been charged. "One percent of Bangladesh GDP went down the drain every year owing to corruption," said Renata Dessallien, the UNDP Resident Representative. "The [anti-corruption] efforts have sent a powerful message to the Bangladesh public that corruption can no longer be tolerated."
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
Main Briefing: Indian and Pakistani PMs meet at Saarc summit
By Eric Eisenberg
AsiaInt Weekly Alert
8/08/08
While terrorism, food security, and the energy crisis headlined the agenda of the 15th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) summit in Colombo, the Indo-Pakistani conflict stole much of the spotlight as Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh of India and Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani of Pakistan met for the first time to discuss relations between the two countries.
Meeting during the evening on 2 August, Singh and Gillani discussed the attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul on 7 July, as well as clashes between Pakistani and Indian border troops on the Line of Control in Kashmir that violate the two nations’ ceasefire that began in 2003.
Despite claims by Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon that the talk was "candid and frank", their conversation was not without tension as Singh continued to level accusations that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence was responsible for the attack on the Indian embassy, an allegation that Gillani denied and referred to as "not only surprising but shocking".
"There were also bombing incidents in Pakistan subsequently but we have not pointed fingers at anyone as we believe in carrying out investigation before laying the responsibility," Gillani said following the meetings. "It is important that blame-game is avoided as both countries have institutionalised a counter-terrorism mechanism which is working satisfactorily."
In late July, during his visit to the US, CIA director Michael Hayden presented Gillani with evidence of ISI involvement in the attack in the form of an intercepted phone call and was warned of "serious action" by President George W Bush should the organization’s actions continue to go unchecked.
While not accepting blame, Gillani agreed in his meeting with Singh to begin an independent investigation into the events. Details were not given regarding a time-frame or how the investigation would be held.
"We stand ready to fulfil our obligations in this regard and hope to see similar commitments from other countries of South Asia," Gillani said.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
AsiaInt Weekly Alert
8/08/08
While terrorism, food security, and the energy crisis headlined the agenda of the 15th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) summit in Colombo, the Indo-Pakistani conflict stole much of the spotlight as Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh of India and Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani of Pakistan met for the first time to discuss relations between the two countries.
Meeting during the evening on 2 August, Singh and Gillani discussed the attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul on 7 July, as well as clashes between Pakistani and Indian border troops on the Line of Control in Kashmir that violate the two nations’ ceasefire that began in 2003.
Despite claims by Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon that the talk was "candid and frank", their conversation was not without tension as Singh continued to level accusations that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence was responsible for the attack on the Indian embassy, an allegation that Gillani denied and referred to as "not only surprising but shocking".
"There were also bombing incidents in Pakistan subsequently but we have not pointed fingers at anyone as we believe in carrying out investigation before laying the responsibility," Gillani said following the meetings. "It is important that blame-game is avoided as both countries have institutionalised a counter-terrorism mechanism which is working satisfactorily."
In late July, during his visit to the US, CIA director Michael Hayden presented Gillani with evidence of ISI involvement in the attack in the form of an intercepted phone call and was warned of "serious action" by President George W Bush should the organization’s actions continue to go unchecked.
While not accepting blame, Gillani agreed in his meeting with Singh to begin an independent investigation into the events. Details were not given regarding a time-frame or how the investigation would be held.
"We stand ready to fulfil our obligations in this regard and hope to see similar commitments from other countries of South Asia," Gillani said.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
India & Pakistan: Kashmir ceasefire hangs by a thread
by Eric Eisenberg
AsiaInt Weekly Alert
8/01/08
The sharp deterioration of relations between Pakistan and India has translated into violence across Kashmir's Line of Control, following India's accusation that Pakistani spies orchestrated a suicide bombing against India's Kabul embassy. The four-year ceasefire, under which travel links have been restored and commercial links strengthened, is now in doubt.
Fighting began on 26 July in the Battal sector when a firefight broke out between the two sides. In a statement from Pakistan's chief military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas, Indian troops "resorted to unprovoked firing," causing Pakistan troops to retaliate. Following the incident, said Pakistani army officials, the sides held a meeting between local commanders.
This failed to stop the exchanges of fire. Another incident occurred on 28 July in the Kupwara sector in India-controlled Kashmir. Indian army spokesman Anil Kumar Mathu said that 10-12 Pakistani soldiers crossed the Line of Control, engaged in a verbal confrontation with Indian troops, and then shot and killed an Indian soldier. The Indians returned fire and at least four Pakistani soldiers were killed.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
AsiaInt Weekly Alert
8/01/08
The sharp deterioration of relations between Pakistan and India has translated into violence across Kashmir's Line of Control, following India's accusation that Pakistani spies orchestrated a suicide bombing against India's Kabul embassy. The four-year ceasefire, under which travel links have been restored and commercial links strengthened, is now in doubt.
Fighting began on 26 July in the Battal sector when a firefight broke out between the two sides. In a statement from Pakistan's chief military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas, Indian troops "resorted to unprovoked firing," causing Pakistan troops to retaliate. Following the incident, said Pakistani army officials, the sides held a meeting between local commanders.
This failed to stop the exchanges of fire. Another incident occurred on 28 July in the Kupwara sector in India-controlled Kashmir. Indian army spokesman Anil Kumar Mathu said that 10-12 Pakistani soldiers crossed the Line of Control, engaged in a verbal confrontation with Indian troops, and then shot and killed an Indian soldier. The Indians returned fire and at least four Pakistani soldiers were killed.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
Mongolia: Gridlock in parliament
by Eric Eisenberg
AsiaInt Weekly Alert
7/25/08
The Mongolian parliament was forced to close after newly-elected opposition members staged a walkout in protest at results from the most recent election, which extended the political dominance of the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP).
On 23 July, during the ceremony in which new MPs are sworn in by the president, the 25 newly appointed members from the Democratic Party walked out. The party’s leader, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, said that they would not return until their demands are met. These include a full investigation into the riots that occurred on 1 July (two days following the disputed election), the release of more than 200 prisoners who were arrested in conjunction with the riots, and the publication of election results from disputed constituencies.
Riots broke out in Ulan Bator following preliminary results that indicated that the MPRP would hold 47 seats in the 76-seat parliament. Hundreds were injured and five people died, which led to the declaration of a four-day state of emergency. On 14 July, the election commission released the final results, with the MPRP winning 39 seats, the Democratic Party winning 25 seats and smaller parties winning two seats, leaving 10 seats in dispute.
The MPRP has held a majority in parliament since January 2006, when the Motherland Democratic Coalition (MDC), which was ruling in coalition with the MPRP, disbanded. Nambaryn Enkhbayar, a pro-Russian member of the MPRP, has served as president since 2005.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
AsiaInt Weekly Alert
7/25/08
The Mongolian parliament was forced to close after newly-elected opposition members staged a walkout in protest at results from the most recent election, which extended the political dominance of the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP).
On 23 July, during the ceremony in which new MPs are sworn in by the president, the 25 newly appointed members from the Democratic Party walked out. The party’s leader, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, said that they would not return until their demands are met. These include a full investigation into the riots that occurred on 1 July (two days following the disputed election), the release of more than 200 prisoners who were arrested in conjunction with the riots, and the publication of election results from disputed constituencies.
Riots broke out in Ulan Bator following preliminary results that indicated that the MPRP would hold 47 seats in the 76-seat parliament. Hundreds were injured and five people died, which led to the declaration of a four-day state of emergency. On 14 July, the election commission released the final results, with the MPRP winning 39 seats, the Democratic Party winning 25 seats and smaller parties winning two seats, leaving 10 seats in dispute.
The MPRP has held a majority in parliament since January 2006, when the Motherland Democratic Coalition (MDC), which was ruling in coalition with the MPRP, disbanded. Nambaryn Enkhbayar, a pro-Russian member of the MPRP, has served as president since 2005.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
Philippines: Pre-emptive action against pro-rebel lawyer
By Eric Eisenberg
AsiaInt Southeast Asia Reivew
7/23/08
A lawyer representing soldiers accused of trying to overthrow the president has himself been arrested on similar charges. Even though the alleged plot comes at a time when President Gloria Arroyo’s popularity has plunged to new depths, there are few signs that Filipinos will be roused to join conspiring military officers.
Homobono Adaza was arrested on 2 July along with retired army colonels Oscarlito Mapalo, Cesar de la Pena, and Ernie Amboy and former police superintendent Rafael Cardeño. Police were examining an extortion case when the coup was discovered and they arrested the men while they were in the Ortigas Center in Pasig City. Cardeño has been wanted since 2001 for his role in the murder of Baron Cervantes, another suspected coupster. In addition to the charges of "proposal to commit coup d’état", extortion, and obstruction of justice, the men were also charged with harbouring a fugitive.
The key informant and witness was another lawyer, Raymond Fortun, who informed police that Adaza was going to attempt to extort up to US$10m from one of Fortun’s clients, Japanese investor Monotori Sakuma, in order to fund a coup. Adaza called Fortun a "pathological liar" and maintained that the charges against him are baseless. Adaza also said that it was Fortun who was planning the coup and had asked Adaza how much the operation would cost.
Following the arrest, senate minority leader Aquilino Pimentel Jr., in defence of Adaza, said, "He may be a lawyer of rebels and disgruntled elements, but to my knowledge he is no rebel himself."
Adaza’s client list includes the officers from the 2003 "Magdalo" coup and officers involved in the 1987 and 1989 coups. Senator Antonio Trillanes, who was involved in the 2003 and 2007 attempts, and Samuel Ong, the former deputy chief of the National Bureau of Investigation and an Arroyo critic, are both on Adaza’s client roster. Adaza argued that his client list has incriminated him unfairly. He also accused President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s government of trying to prosecute anyone that stands up to her administration.
Adaza’s arrest is set against a backdrop of ongoing court proceedings against those he previously represented, most of whom are part of the Magdalo group of army officers that have been variously involved in coup attempts and alliances with left-wing rebels during Arroyo’s presidency. On 10 July eleven Magdalo officers involved in the Oakwood Mutiny five years ago were dismissed from service and jailed. Whether they will remain incarcerated is uncertain; in May Arroyo, under pressure from military leaders, pardoned nine officers involved in the same coup after they issued public apologies.
On 8 July it was announced that pre-trial investigations have begun into a failed coup attempt in November 2007, when Brigadier General Danilo Lim and 10 junior military officers, also members of the Magdalo group, attempted a takeover of the Peninsula Manila hotel.
Adaza’s client list includes the Magdalo officers from the 2003 coup and officers involved in the 1987 and 1989 coups. Senator Antonio Trillanes, who was involved in the 2003 and 2007 attempts, and Samuel Ong, the former deputy chief of the National Bureau of Investigation and an Arroyo critic, are both on Adaza’s client roster. Adaza argued that his client list has incriminated him unfairly. He also accused President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s government of trying to prosecute anyone that stands up to her administration.
The head of the armed forces, General Alexander Yano, was at pains to emphasise that the Adaza "plot" was not a "military concern", saying the conspirators may have had intent but they lacked any capability. This in fact sums up the majority of coup attempts during Arroyo’s presidency, a sign that the pool of rebellious officers has repeatedly failed to inspire civilian Filipinos. The discovery of this latest coup plot coincided with a poll by the Social Weather Station which showed that around 60% were dissatisfied with Arroyo, while only 22% were satisfied. But with Arroyo prohibited from running for another term, most Filipinos are waiting to elect a new leader rather than endorse a military president.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
AsiaInt Southeast Asia Reivew
7/23/08
A lawyer representing soldiers accused of trying to overthrow the president has himself been arrested on similar charges. Even though the alleged plot comes at a time when President Gloria Arroyo’s popularity has plunged to new depths, there are few signs that Filipinos will be roused to join conspiring military officers.
Homobono Adaza was arrested on 2 July along with retired army colonels Oscarlito Mapalo, Cesar de la Pena, and Ernie Amboy and former police superintendent Rafael Cardeño. Police were examining an extortion case when the coup was discovered and they arrested the men while they were in the Ortigas Center in Pasig City. Cardeño has been wanted since 2001 for his role in the murder of Baron Cervantes, another suspected coupster. In addition to the charges of "proposal to commit coup d’état", extortion, and obstruction of justice, the men were also charged with harbouring a fugitive.
The key informant and witness was another lawyer, Raymond Fortun, who informed police that Adaza was going to attempt to extort up to US$10m from one of Fortun’s clients, Japanese investor Monotori Sakuma, in order to fund a coup. Adaza called Fortun a "pathological liar" and maintained that the charges against him are baseless. Adaza also said that it was Fortun who was planning the coup and had asked Adaza how much the operation would cost.
Following the arrest, senate minority leader Aquilino Pimentel Jr., in defence of Adaza, said, "He may be a lawyer of rebels and disgruntled elements, but to my knowledge he is no rebel himself."
Adaza’s client list includes the officers from the 2003 "Magdalo" coup and officers involved in the 1987 and 1989 coups. Senator Antonio Trillanes, who was involved in the 2003 and 2007 attempts, and Samuel Ong, the former deputy chief of the National Bureau of Investigation and an Arroyo critic, are both on Adaza’s client roster. Adaza argued that his client list has incriminated him unfairly. He also accused President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s government of trying to prosecute anyone that stands up to her administration.
Adaza’s arrest is set against a backdrop of ongoing court proceedings against those he previously represented, most of whom are part of the Magdalo group of army officers that have been variously involved in coup attempts and alliances with left-wing rebels during Arroyo’s presidency. On 10 July eleven Magdalo officers involved in the Oakwood Mutiny five years ago were dismissed from service and jailed. Whether they will remain incarcerated is uncertain; in May Arroyo, under pressure from military leaders, pardoned nine officers involved in the same coup after they issued public apologies.
On 8 July it was announced that pre-trial investigations have begun into a failed coup attempt in November 2007, when Brigadier General Danilo Lim and 10 junior military officers, also members of the Magdalo group, attempted a takeover of the Peninsula Manila hotel.
Adaza’s client list includes the Magdalo officers from the 2003 coup and officers involved in the 1987 and 1989 coups. Senator Antonio Trillanes, who was involved in the 2003 and 2007 attempts, and Samuel Ong, the former deputy chief of the National Bureau of Investigation and an Arroyo critic, are both on Adaza’s client roster. Adaza argued that his client list has incriminated him unfairly. He also accused President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s government of trying to prosecute anyone that stands up to her administration.
The head of the armed forces, General Alexander Yano, was at pains to emphasise that the Adaza "plot" was not a "military concern", saying the conspirators may have had intent but they lacked any capability. This in fact sums up the majority of coup attempts during Arroyo’s presidency, a sign that the pool of rebellious officers has repeatedly failed to inspire civilian Filipinos. The discovery of this latest coup plot coincided with a poll by the Social Weather Station which showed that around 60% were dissatisfied with Arroyo, while only 22% were satisfied. But with Arroyo prohibited from running for another term, most Filipinos are waiting to elect a new leader rather than endorse a military president.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
Region: Renewed US interest in Indo-China
By Eric Eisenberg
AsiaInt Southeast Asia Review
7/23/08
After decades of Cold War acrimony, the US is now pursuing a new set of priorities in Indo-China. With Chinese sway growing throughout the region, Washington is eager to ensure that the US does not become sidelined. Rather than offering trade and economic incentives alone, the US is trying to promote military relations as a vehicle for closer ties.
The US State Department announced plans to increase military ties with Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam at a forum in Washington in early July. "We are starting off small – doing some training, some exchanges which we think are very useful," said Scot Marciel, the deputy assistant secretary at the East Asia and Pacific Bureau. Marciel, who is also the US ambassador to Asean, said that by the end of the year the Lao government and the US will open defence-attaché offices in each other’s capitals.
It is the latest stage in normalising US relations with all three countries. In the case of Cambodia, the US lifted a ban on arms sales in 2005. It was a remarkable turnaround given that Washington was reluctant to provide arms in the early 1990s when Khmer Rouge guerrillas threatened to topple the royalist-led government. Cambodia’s agreement with the UN in 2003 to try Khmer Rouge leaders was an important factor in changing this policy. In 2007 two US warships docked in Cambodian ports to offer medical clinics and training for the Cambodian military.
On 31 January the Federal Bureau of Investigation opened its sixtieth worldwide office in Phnom Penh. The office covers Cambodia and Vietnam and focuses on transnational crime such as terrorism and smuggling. But its remit was this month shown to be more flexible than this. On 11 July, with election campaigning in full throttle before polls on 27 July, a prominent anti-government journalist and his son were killed. The US condemned the murders and the FBI offered to assist in the investigation, even though it could indict the government.
In late June Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung made his first official visit to the US. It followed President Nguyen Minh Triet’s official visit last year. Dung discussed with President George W Bush cooperation in education, technology, and environmental protection. Crucially both sides agreed that they will initiate negotiations for a bilateral investment treaty, and the US will consider Vietnam’s request to become a beneficiary of the Generalised System of Preferences programme, potentially a huge boon for Vietnamese exporters.
Although trade and investment remains the focus of bilateral ties, the relationship is being diversified. A joint statement released after the visit said Bush and Dung also discussed "new political-military and policy planning talks, which will allow for more frequent and in-depth discussions on security and strategic issues". On 20 June the US Navy opened a hospital ship stationed in a Vietnamese harbour to Vietnamese citizens in need of medical care. Naval communications officer Lieutenant David Bennet called the ship’s opening a "huge step in creating a new partnership".
While China’s growing ties with South-East Asia is not the sole reason behind the US’s recent efforts in the region, it is a major factor. Last year Asean countries accused Washington of neglecting the region because of the US preoccupation with the Middle East. In August 2007 State Department Deputy Director John Negroponte, who stood in for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at the Asean regional forum, was forced to say: "‘The US considers its relations with Asean as a critical component of its dealings with East Asia as a whole." The commitment to military cooperation in Indo-China is the latest sign that the US has recognised the dangers of becoming less relevant in South-East Asia.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
AsiaInt Southeast Asia Review
7/23/08
After decades of Cold War acrimony, the US is now pursuing a new set of priorities in Indo-China. With Chinese sway growing throughout the region, Washington is eager to ensure that the US does not become sidelined. Rather than offering trade and economic incentives alone, the US is trying to promote military relations as a vehicle for closer ties.
The US State Department announced plans to increase military ties with Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam at a forum in Washington in early July. "We are starting off small – doing some training, some exchanges which we think are very useful," said Scot Marciel, the deputy assistant secretary at the East Asia and Pacific Bureau. Marciel, who is also the US ambassador to Asean, said that by the end of the year the Lao government and the US will open defence-attaché offices in each other’s capitals.
It is the latest stage in normalising US relations with all three countries. In the case of Cambodia, the US lifted a ban on arms sales in 2005. It was a remarkable turnaround given that Washington was reluctant to provide arms in the early 1990s when Khmer Rouge guerrillas threatened to topple the royalist-led government. Cambodia’s agreement with the UN in 2003 to try Khmer Rouge leaders was an important factor in changing this policy. In 2007 two US warships docked in Cambodian ports to offer medical clinics and training for the Cambodian military.
On 31 January the Federal Bureau of Investigation opened its sixtieth worldwide office in Phnom Penh. The office covers Cambodia and Vietnam and focuses on transnational crime such as terrorism and smuggling. But its remit was this month shown to be more flexible than this. On 11 July, with election campaigning in full throttle before polls on 27 July, a prominent anti-government journalist and his son were killed. The US condemned the murders and the FBI offered to assist in the investigation, even though it could indict the government.
In late June Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung made his first official visit to the US. It followed President Nguyen Minh Triet’s official visit last year. Dung discussed with President George W Bush cooperation in education, technology, and environmental protection. Crucially both sides agreed that they will initiate negotiations for a bilateral investment treaty, and the US will consider Vietnam’s request to become a beneficiary of the Generalised System of Preferences programme, potentially a huge boon for Vietnamese exporters.
Although trade and investment remains the focus of bilateral ties, the relationship is being diversified. A joint statement released after the visit said Bush and Dung also discussed "new political-military and policy planning talks, which will allow for more frequent and in-depth discussions on security and strategic issues". On 20 June the US Navy opened a hospital ship stationed in a Vietnamese harbour to Vietnamese citizens in need of medical care. Naval communications officer Lieutenant David Bennet called the ship’s opening a "huge step in creating a new partnership".
While China’s growing ties with South-East Asia is not the sole reason behind the US’s recent efforts in the region, it is a major factor. Last year Asean countries accused Washington of neglecting the region because of the US preoccupation with the Middle East. In August 2007 State Department Deputy Director John Negroponte, who stood in for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at the Asean regional forum, was forced to say: "‘The US considers its relations with Asean as a critical component of its dealings with East Asia as a whole." The commitment to military cooperation in Indo-China is the latest sign that the US has recognised the dangers of becoming less relevant in South-East Asia.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
Indonesia & East Timor: More reconciliation
By Eric Eisenberg
AsiaInt Weekly Alert
7/18/08
Despite Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s public regret over the violence that broke out following East Timor’s independence vote in 1999, human-rights groups remain outraged at Jakarta’s reluctance to prosecute those responsible.
On 15 July a report by the Commission of Truth and Friendship (CTF), which was established in 2005 to investigate the violence, was approved by both East Timor’s President Jose Ramos Horta and Yudhoyono. The report concluded that the violence resulted in the death of about 1,000 East Timorese and cited numerous counts of sexual assault, torture, and illegal detention. While the report recommended that both presidents apologise to their people and ruled out an amnesty, no perpetrators were named and the commission retains no powers of prosecution.
Representatives of Indonesia have said that there will be no judicial action following the report’s release. The CTF’s refusal to indicate its position on amnesty for those involved in the violence at the beginning of the investigation led to a boycott of the commission by the UN.
International human rights groups have pushed for Indonesia to indict those responsible, and others have reached out to the international community as well as the UN Security Council to place pressure on the Indonesian government. General Wiranto, who was in charge of security during the vote, is one of groups’ main targets. Wiranto has been indicted by a UN panel for his involvement in the events but has never been tried.
Many have also expressed concern regarding Yudohoyono’s unwillingness to apologize for the events, simply "[conveying] deep regret" in a joint statement with Ramos-Horta. East Timor’s Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao has supported the Indonesian president, however, saying that the events occurred before Yudohoyono’s presidency and he was "satisfied" with the sentiment. On a governmental level at least, the report and Jakarta’s remorse is another step towards reconciliation between the two countries.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
AsiaInt Weekly Alert
7/18/08
Despite Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s public regret over the violence that broke out following East Timor’s independence vote in 1999, human-rights groups remain outraged at Jakarta’s reluctance to prosecute those responsible.
On 15 July a report by the Commission of Truth and Friendship (CTF), which was established in 2005 to investigate the violence, was approved by both East Timor’s President Jose Ramos Horta and Yudhoyono. The report concluded that the violence resulted in the death of about 1,000 East Timorese and cited numerous counts of sexual assault, torture, and illegal detention. While the report recommended that both presidents apologise to their people and ruled out an amnesty, no perpetrators were named and the commission retains no powers of prosecution.
Representatives of Indonesia have said that there will be no judicial action following the report’s release. The CTF’s refusal to indicate its position on amnesty for those involved in the violence at the beginning of the investigation led to a boycott of the commission by the UN.
International human rights groups have pushed for Indonesia to indict those responsible, and others have reached out to the international community as well as the UN Security Council to place pressure on the Indonesian government. General Wiranto, who was in charge of security during the vote, is one of groups’ main targets. Wiranto has been indicted by a UN panel for his involvement in the events but has never been tried.
Many have also expressed concern regarding Yudohoyono’s unwillingness to apologize for the events, simply "[conveying] deep regret" in a joint statement with Ramos-Horta. East Timor’s Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao has supported the Indonesian president, however, saying that the events occurred before Yudohoyono’s presidency and he was "satisfied" with the sentiment. On a governmental level at least, the report and Jakarta’s remorse is another step towards reconciliation between the two countries.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
Pakistan: US queries military aid
By Eric Eisenberg
AsiaInt South Asia Review
7/16/08
The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) published a report on 24 June questioning the oversight of funds given to Pakistan by the United States Department of Defense for support in fighting terrorism.
As of May 2008, Pakistan has received US$5.56bn in Coalition Support Funds (CSF) as reimbursement for attacking terrorist networks in its Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Yet, according to the GAO report, it is unknown as to "how much of the…costs reimbursed to Pakistan since 2001 were actually incurred". The GAO said: "Our assessment found that… [the Department of Defense] had not followed its existing guidance and provided little oversight of the effort at the embassy in Pakistan."
In many cases, aid to Pakistan was transferred without the proper documentation required by the Department of Defense, such as detailed descriptions and associated invoices. Between January 2004 and June 2007, 76% of the army’s costs "lacked sufficient information to allow [the Department of Defense] to perform basic recalculations needed to verify the claims."
The department may have reimbursed Pakistan for activities and expenses that never occurred.
According to the report, Pakistan received US$30m for road construction and US$15m for bunker construction projects that were presented without sufficient documentation and have never been verified with coordinates. Instances of duplication may also have occurred, with cost categories such as "vehicle damage" and "cost of vehicles repaired" providing no distinctive details.
When oversight has increased, the GAO wrote, it is reflected in the numbers of disallowed or deferred claims. Between September 2006 and June 2007, with increased oversight of Pakistani claims by the Office of the Defence Representative to Pakistan (ODRP), approximately 22% of claims were rejected or deferred by the Department of Defence. In comparison, between January 2004 and August 2006, the average percentage of rejected claims was approximately 2%. The ODRP, however, does not receive audit training, nor does it have oversight responsibilities.
To remedy the current status of oversight regarding Coalition Support Funds, the GAO suggested, amongst other things, deferring or disallowing claims without proper documentation; defining the role and responsibilities of the ODRP; working with the Pakistani government to potentially set up on-site inspections; and following fluctuating exchange rates to ensure proper reimbursement.
In response to a draft version of the report, the Department of Defence said that the GAO has not weighted Pakistan’s impact to the global war on terror because of CSF support; has ignored the legal restrictions that the Department of Defence has adhered to; and neglected Pakistan’s position as a sovereign country "that may not meet US accounting and administration standards".
This seemed to suggest that the US views corruption in Pakistan as inevitable, a conclusion that ensured the report generated outrage among both US lawmakers and Pakistan’s government, which angrily rejected its findings.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
AsiaInt South Asia Review
7/16/08
The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) published a report on 24 June questioning the oversight of funds given to Pakistan by the United States Department of Defense for support in fighting terrorism.
As of May 2008, Pakistan has received US$5.56bn in Coalition Support Funds (CSF) as reimbursement for attacking terrorist networks in its Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Yet, according to the GAO report, it is unknown as to "how much of the…costs reimbursed to Pakistan since 2001 were actually incurred". The GAO said: "Our assessment found that… [the Department of Defense] had not followed its existing guidance and provided little oversight of the effort at the embassy in Pakistan."
In many cases, aid to Pakistan was transferred without the proper documentation required by the Department of Defense, such as detailed descriptions and associated invoices. Between January 2004 and June 2007, 76% of the army’s costs "lacked sufficient information to allow [the Department of Defense] to perform basic recalculations needed to verify the claims."
The department may have reimbursed Pakistan for activities and expenses that never occurred.
According to the report, Pakistan received US$30m for road construction and US$15m for bunker construction projects that were presented without sufficient documentation and have never been verified with coordinates. Instances of duplication may also have occurred, with cost categories such as "vehicle damage" and "cost of vehicles repaired" providing no distinctive details.
When oversight has increased, the GAO wrote, it is reflected in the numbers of disallowed or deferred claims. Between September 2006 and June 2007, with increased oversight of Pakistani claims by the Office of the Defence Representative to Pakistan (ODRP), approximately 22% of claims were rejected or deferred by the Department of Defence. In comparison, between January 2004 and August 2006, the average percentage of rejected claims was approximately 2%. The ODRP, however, does not receive audit training, nor does it have oversight responsibilities.
To remedy the current status of oversight regarding Coalition Support Funds, the GAO suggested, amongst other things, deferring or disallowing claims without proper documentation; defining the role and responsibilities of the ODRP; working with the Pakistani government to potentially set up on-site inspections; and following fluctuating exchange rates to ensure proper reimbursement.
In response to a draft version of the report, the Department of Defence said that the GAO has not weighted Pakistan’s impact to the global war on terror because of CSF support; has ignored the legal restrictions that the Department of Defence has adhered to; and neglected Pakistan’s position as a sovereign country "that may not meet US accounting and administration standards".
This seemed to suggest that the US views corruption in Pakistan as inevitable, a conclusion that ensured the report generated outrage among both US lawmakers and Pakistan’s government, which angrily rejected its findings.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
Region: More fuel hikes
By Eric Eisenberg
AsiaInt South Asia Review
7/16/08
South Asia has experienced another round of fuel-price rises, with Bangladesh and Pakistan leading the way. Below is a guide to the recent changes.
Bangladesh. On 1 July Bangladesh raised prices of petrol, diesel, and kerosene in an attempt to reduce the government's subsidy burden. The price of petrol rose 34% to 87 taka per litre (US$1.27), while the price of diesel and kerosene rose 37.5% to 55 taka per litre (US$0.80).
India. For the second time in two years, on 4 June India increased fuel prices. The increase of 10% was the largest in India's history. The subsidy reduction caused the retail price of petrol to rise 50.52 rupees (US$1.19) per litre and diesel to rise to 34.48 rupees (US$0.81) per litre.
Nepal. Due to losses in the state-run oil firm and an oil shortage, on 9 June petrol and diesel prices were increased by 25% and 24.4% respectively. Drivers now pay 100 rupees (US$1.46) a litre for petrol and 70 rupees (US$1.01) for diesel.
Pakistan. Pakistan experienced a 10% increase in petrol prices on 29 June. After spending US$2.4bn on fuel subsidies in the last fiscal year, the government attempted to phase out subsidies, causing petrol prices to rise 75.69 rupees (US$1.11) a litre and the price of diesel to rise to 49.05 (US$0.72). Pakistan is planning to phase out all fuel-related subsidies by December 2008.
Sri Lanka. On 25 May Sri Lanka increased petrol prices from 127 rupees (US$1.18) to 157 (US$1.46) for a litre of 90 octane petrol. Diesel prices went up to 110 rupees (US$1.02) per litre from 90 (US$0.84).
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
AsiaInt South Asia Review
7/16/08
South Asia has experienced another round of fuel-price rises, with Bangladesh and Pakistan leading the way. Below is a guide to the recent changes.
Bangladesh. On 1 July Bangladesh raised prices of petrol, diesel, and kerosene in an attempt to reduce the government's subsidy burden. The price of petrol rose 34% to 87 taka per litre (US$1.27), while the price of diesel and kerosene rose 37.5% to 55 taka per litre (US$0.80).
India. For the second time in two years, on 4 June India increased fuel prices. The increase of 10% was the largest in India's history. The subsidy reduction caused the retail price of petrol to rise 50.52 rupees (US$1.19) per litre and diesel to rise to 34.48 rupees (US$0.81) per litre.
Nepal. Due to losses in the state-run oil firm and an oil shortage, on 9 June petrol and diesel prices were increased by 25% and 24.4% respectively. Drivers now pay 100 rupees (US$1.46) a litre for petrol and 70 rupees (US$1.01) for diesel.
Pakistan. Pakistan experienced a 10% increase in petrol prices on 29 June. After spending US$2.4bn on fuel subsidies in the last fiscal year, the government attempted to phase out subsidies, causing petrol prices to rise 75.69 rupees (US$1.11) a litre and the price of diesel to rise to 49.05 (US$0.72). Pakistan is planning to phase out all fuel-related subsidies by December 2008.
Sri Lanka. On 25 May Sri Lanka increased petrol prices from 127 rupees (US$1.18) to 157 (US$1.46) for a litre of 90 octane petrol. Diesel prices went up to 110 rupees (US$1.02) per litre from 90 (US$0.84).
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
Hong Kong: Economic outlook
By Eric Eisenberg
AsiaInt North Asia Review
7/16/08
A MasterCard Survey reported on 26 June that despite consumer confidence in the Asian market dropping to 56.0 in the second quarter of 2008, Hong Kong maintains the third highest rating in the region (83.1) behind only Singapore (87.3) and Vietnam (86.2).
In the first quarter of 2008, Hong Kong’s GDP rose 9.6% to HK$409bn, and between March and May, unemployment maintained a decade low of 3.3. However, a surge in housing rates and food prices saw prices rising 5.7% from a year earlier in May, up from 5.4% in April.
Joseph Yam, chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, has said that despite the rise in inflation, Hong Kong will not adjust its currency peg with the US dollar and instead, it is expected that rising interest rates in both the United States and Hong Kong will help.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
AsiaInt North Asia Review
7/16/08
A MasterCard Survey reported on 26 June that despite consumer confidence in the Asian market dropping to 56.0 in the second quarter of 2008, Hong Kong maintains the third highest rating in the region (83.1) behind only Singapore (87.3) and Vietnam (86.2).
In the first quarter of 2008, Hong Kong’s GDP rose 9.6% to HK$409bn, and between March and May, unemployment maintained a decade low of 3.3. However, a surge in housing rates and food prices saw prices rising 5.7% from a year earlier in May, up from 5.4% in April.
Joseph Yam, chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, has said that despite the rise in inflation, Hong Kong will not adjust its currency peg with the US dollar and instead, it is expected that rising interest rates in both the United States and Hong Kong will help.
© Intelligence Research Ltd.
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